Playoff odds calculator · Included with Smash Pro
Fantasy Football Season Simulator
A fantasy football season simulator plays out the rest of your league's schedule thousands of times and counts how often each team makes the playoffs, earns a bye and wins the title. Smash Accept's simulator uses your league's real rosters, remaining matchups and playoff format — not a model league — so the odds are yours. Connect a Sleeper league with just your username. The simulator is included with Smash Pro ($16.99/mo) and above.
Playoff, bye and title odds
Every team's chances to make the playoffs, earn a first-round bye and win it all, from thousands of simulated season outcomes.
Your real league, not a model league
Uses your league's actual rosters, remaining matchups, playoff start week, and number of playoff teams.
Know when to push or punt
Seeing your true odds tells you whether to trade for the title run this year or sell for the future — and the trade calculator shows the odds impact of any deal.
Built on live projections
Team strength comes from the same player values and projections that power our rankings and trade tools, updated through the season.
How it works
- 1
Connect your Sleeper account
Enter your Sleeper username and your leagues import automatically with rosters, standings and schedule — no password.
- 2
Pick a league to simulate
Choose any of your dynasty, keeper or redraft leagues. The simulator reads that league's playoff week and playoff team count.
- 3
See how the season plays out
Get playoff odds, bye odds and championship odds for every team, re-run whenever you like as the season unfolds.
What the odds look like: a worked example
A 12-team league after Week 6, 6playoff spots, two byes. Illustrative numbers — your league's table is built from your rosters and schedule.
| Team | Record | Points for | Playoffs | Bye | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | 5-1 | 812 | 96% | 61% | 21% |
| Team B | 5-1 | 764 | 93% | 48% | 16% |
| Team C | 4-2 | 798 | 88% | 34% | 15% |
| Team D | 4-2 | 701 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Team E | 3-3 | 781 | 66% | 14% | 11% |
Your league's real odds, all 12 teams
The season simulator is included with Smash Pro ($16.99/mo): playoff, bye and title odds from your actual rosters and schedule.
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Notice Team E: a .500 record with the third-most points scored, and a 66% playoff chance — better than two teams with winning records. Record tells you what happened; points and remaining schedule tell you what is likely to happen. Team H is the classic seller's trap: 2-4 but scoring like a contender, so the simulator still gives them a one-in-three shot. Sell that roster and you are selling a live team.
How the playoff odds are calculated
Team strength.Each roster gets a projected weekly score from the same player values and projections behind the Smash Accept rankings, using your league's starting lineup slots — a superflex league with two flexes is scored as one, not as a generic 1QB league.
Remaining schedule.Every unplayed matchup on your Sleeper schedule is simulated with week-to-week variance around each team's projection, so a small favourite loses sometimes and a bad team occasionally posts a season high. Played weeks are locked as they happened.
Your playoff format. Playoff start week, number of playoff teams, byes and the tiebreaker (points for) come straight from the league settings. The bracket is then played out with the same variance, which is how the championship column is built.
Thousands of seasons. Each season is one random path through the remaining weeks. Run it a few thousand times and the share of paths where your team makes the playoffs is your playoff probability. Re-run it after a trade, a waiver claim or a bad Sunday and the odds move.
Contender or pretender: reading your odds
70%+ playoffs
You are in. Trade depth and future picks for the piece that raises your title odds; the trade calculator shows the odds impact of any deal before you send it.
30–70% playoffs
The bubble. One trade can swing you either way. Look at points for: high scorers on the bubble are buyers, low scorers with a lucky record are sellers.
Under 30% playoffs
Sell the veterans while contenders will still pay for this season, and use the trade finder to find the buyers whose rosters actually need them.
Works for dynasty, keeper and redraft leagues alike — the only difference is what you do with the answer. In redraft a pretender streams and takes shots on waivers; in dynasty a pretender sells and turns this season into next year's first-round picks. See the dynasty trade calculator for what those picks are worth.
Frequently asked questions
How does the fantasy football season simulator work?+
It projects every team's weekly score from live player values and your league's lineup slots, plays out the remaining Sleeper schedule thousands of times with realistic week-to-week variance, then applies your league's playoff format to count how often each team makes the playoffs, earns a bye and wins the championship.
Does it use my league's actual playoff settings?+
Yes — playoff start week, the number of playoff teams, byes and the points-for tiebreaker come straight from your league's settings, so the odds reflect your real format rather than a default six-team bracket.
Which platforms are supported?+
Sleeper leagues are supported today — connect with just your username, no password required. Your leagues, rosters, standings and schedule import automatically.
Is it a playoff odds calculator for redraft leagues too?+
Yes. The simulator works for redraft, keeper and dynasty leagues; it reads the league's rosters and schedule the same way. Dynasty managers also get the trade tools to act on the answer.
How accurate are the playoff odds?+
As accurate as the projections and the schedule allow: a 70% team makes it about seven times in ten. The number is most useful for the direction it points — buy, hold or sell — and for how much it moves after a trade, which the trade calculator shows directly.
Can I see how a trade changes my playoff odds?+
Yes — with a connected league, every trade you evaluate in the calculator shows the before → after playoff, bye and championship odds for both teams from a fresh 1,000-season simulation.
Is the season simulator free?+
No. The season simulator is a paid tool, included with Smash Pro ($16.99/mo) and every plan above it. Creating an account is free, and the dynasty trade calculator is free with any account.
Get your league's real odds with Smash Pro
Creating an account is free; the season simulator unlocks with a paid plan. The dynasty trade calculator is free with any account.
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